When Random Isn't Random

This post is partly inspired by the distant memory of an ex-something of mine who would insist; "There's no such thing as random." Despite the fact there was greater scope for intelligent discourse with my big toe than with the individual in question, the statement raises an interesting point to consider. As the concept of random deserves a dedicated post, this is a precursor to my next post in the Karma series.

Define 'random.'
References are good. In order to avoid having a sea of links or pages of text, I've edited out additional definitions from the sources below where the meaning is adequately captured by another source.

I've included some definitions that I personally believe are wrong. Common usage or not, in terms of capturing the core concept of random - dead fucking wrong. I've done this, partly to poke fun at particular professions, but also to highlight the extent to which this term has been applied to so many different meanings, some being mutually exclusive, that it has essentially become a meaningless term without a specific context.

Apparently, random is...

(1) "lacking any definite plan or order or purpose; governed by or depending on chance."
Princeton website

(2) "a lack of order, purpose, cause, or predictability." (more)
Wikipedia

(3) "is often used in statistics to signify well-defined statistical properties, such as a lack of bias or correlation."
Wikipedia

(4) "an event for which there is no way to know, before it occurs, what the outcome will be. Instead, only the probabilities of each possible outcome can be stated."
Cliffs Notes

(5) "the equal chance of any occurrence."
Marketing and Geography education resources

(6) "an undefined, unknown or unimportant person; a person of no consequence;"
Wiktionary

(7) "(describes) a happening or event due to chance and not determined by other factors."
A Dictionary Of Epidemiology

(8) "sometimes used as a colloquialism for nonsense, e.g. for outburst that are non sequitur."
Wikipedia dispute page for 'randomness'

And the list goes on. Others include, "haphazardly", "at great speed", "an undesirable person."

Etc, etc, etc.

Wow, you're right. The term is all but meaningless.
Yes and no. Whilst it may be near impossible to neatly box it up into a single definition, it does express a concept and idea that has to do with unpredictability and, by extension, unfathomability. So let's see if we can't tighten up the definition some by referencing it to that with a little insight and integrity...

Those wacky statisticians
As per definition (3), a random distribution of events is defined as a series of events that follows a uniform and predictable pattern, where the greatest number of events occurs in the middle of the range of options (ie, the average, aka mean), and each of the extremes (variables that are the largest number of standard devs away from the average) represents the fewest number of occurrences. Also known as a Gaussian distribution or 'normal' distribution. (Interesting, no?)

This is relevant because, in the absence of any other information, statisticians assume in their modelling, with some success that a distribution is 'random.' Why does this work? Because, when you're looking at a series of data, no matter what the data is (length of cats claws, height of humans, etc), the greater your sample is, the more likely it is that the pattern of events will resemble this kind distribution. Whilst this has some very important ramifications for random as a whole concept, I'm going to largely leave the technical aspect behind as we clear out some of the guff associated with this term.

The Elimination Game Time eliminating definitions for the purposes of sanity and maintaining the scope. As you will see from below, the following definitions are, in a word, bollocks;

Random as a synonym for the non sequitur, the nonsensical, the absurd: As can be observed, there are a variety of terms that are a) more descriptive of the event and b) intrinsically less confusing for the listener that ought be used in this context instead of random. *definition lands in the trash with a swoosh.*

Random as a way of describing strangers, friends of friends, casual observers, people that you may or may not have met yet: As for previous.

Random as a way to describe something "with no cause": This concept is a myth. I say with an enormous amount of confidence that every single event that we are ever likely to experience in this lifetime has a cause. If it doesn't have a cause, it has several causes. Whether there's any intelligence, behind the cause(s), whether we can accurately discern the nature of these causes - irrelevant. The cause is there. In the same way that it doesn't work logically to put the cart before the horse, you can't have an effect without a cause. Busted.

Random as a way to describe an equal chance of any occurrence: What a load of crap. And yet, I will recognise that it is common usage to describe the event of any number coming up on a dice as 'random' despite the fact that the chances of any specific number coming up are equal.

Whilst I am guilty of the offence of using the term in one or more of the following incorrect contexts, I do not condone it. The definitions as per above are symptomatic of lazy thinking, and are best avoided.

When *is* random not random?
In to assist dissecting delve into the more woolly interpretations of the term, I will quote one more source;

This article presumes a priori that randomness means irreducible randomness, and 'essentially' pretends that reducible randomness doesn't exist. This is in spite of the fact that reducible randomness is the only form that can be definitively demonstrated, in special cases.
Wikipedia dispute page for 'randomness'

From this and the disparity between some of the remaining def'ns, it would seem that you can divide random into two categories;

Irreducibly random - ie How the fuck did that happen? I had no basis for any reasonable assumption that that was going to occur.
Reducibly random - ie OK, there was a likelihood that this would occur. Maybe I felt like I knew enough to put a number on it. But I didn't know it was going to happen, indeed, it wasn't even likely, given the number and/or probability associated with the alternatives. And yes, the existing uncertainty associated with the (supposedly) random object.

This is all very well and good, as far as it goes. Only one problem - the absence of parameters. Due to the level of reasonable uncertainty which we determine and predict things as human beans, anything can be classified as reducibly random. My car starting in the morning could be random. The sun rising in the morning could be construed as reducibly random. (It could get hit by another universe and be wiped out of existence before tomorrow.)

My question would then be - at what point do we say, 'Although we cannot perfectly predict the outcome relating to this scenario, we are sufficiently familiar with the causes relating to the situation, and have a reasonable ability to foresee what's going to happen (ie when I roll a six-sided dice, it will come up with an integer between 1 and 6) such that it has sufficient predictability that it can no longer be considered random'?

I take the point that we can't prove whether something is irreducibly random, only when it's not. However I believe there's a danger in assigning too much to the term 'reducibly random.' Surely when we have certain level of knowledge of related causes and effects, whatever the outcome turns out to be, we can say 'Yes. I hereby declare this thing un-random." Stamped, sealed and delivered.

Either that, or we need to start coming up with some more terms to describe the various degrees of random. Clarity of language people. I demand clarity of language.

Bloggng from Melbourne Central

From my lofty view here on the second floor of Melbourne Central mall, it has gotten a lot easier than it was an hour ago to look down upon people.

Some of my more psychically adept readers may be asking themselves the following question; "I wonder why Althea is blogging from a noisy place awash with various greasy odours wafting from the food court, when she has access to at least one free computer at any given time at her sister's apartment?"

Which is indeed, an excellent question. To which my answer would be "Because I braved close proximity to a recruitment agent, and as a direct result got locked my keys and wallet in my sisters apartment!"

*pauses for the ensuing applause and standing ovations*

Yes, it's true. My genius is unparalleled.

Luckily for me and my genius, I was still able to get money out of the bank. This was a result of the fact that I carry the contents of Morocco in my handbag. Despite not having keys or wallet, I had my US passport in my bag.

Go pack rats of the world!

Teach This

I've not ever seriously considered it as a full-time gig, but I think that I would be a truly shagawful teacher. Not because, I don't have patience (though it does have it's limits), or because I couldn't teach material (depends on the material and the nature of the thing absorbing the material), but because there are reasons why I would not be the kind of teacher that I would want to have. Some include the fact that I fancy myself something of a comedian and I can be very blunt. (Shock, horror.) For instance, some of you may recall a certain scene of a Simpsons episode where the kiddy school orchestra was having a rehearsal and there was the following dialogue:

Chorus of kids: Lisa li-ikes Nel-son...
Milhouse: [indignantly] She does not!
Chorus of kids: Milhouse li-ikes Li-sa...
Janie: [indignantly] He does not!
Chorus of kids: Janie li-ikes Mil-house...
Music Teacher: Nobody likes Milhouse!

That is the sort of teacher I would be.

Not quite, but pretty damn close.

Of course, that wouldn't stop me if I decided that I wanted to find me a home where the teachers roam. However, they get paid precisely jack-squat (especially in Victoria). Seriously, unexotic dancers get paid more than Victorian teachers do.

Needless to say, it ain't happening for this cookie cutter.

Blaze Of Death

How about that Mother of all Bushfires in Victoria? Madness. I tried to find a link for the story and drowned in the stories of death, loss and depression. And guess what? They're still burning!

For those that don't know, Saturday was the kindling. It got to 47 C. So hot. But far be it for me to whinge when I still have a roof over my head. (Seriously though - the only time I have *ever* experience that kind of hot was when I was passing through Needles, California.) The exact cause of every one of the bushfires is unknown. There's been quite a bit of finger-pointing, but I suspect that the gum trees screamed "It's too hot!" and spontaneously combusted en masse.

And I do mean en masse. From the comfortable and welldefended haven of Melbourne, I could see the gigantic clouds of smoke from the apartment window. It makes the Canberra bushfires of 2003, about which there was quite a brouhaha, pale in comparison.

Despite the horror of the destroyed lives and homes, it is quite heartening that so many people are willing to give and help out. Over the past few days, they've managed to raise several million for the relief fund. Although most of the big bikkies not coming from individuals, the fact that so many people from different places and different walks of life have dug in their pockets to help those that have taken a great spanking by the elements says something that I like to hear.

Existing In The Place Between Places

Ah, transition. Could there possibly be anything better? Except, oh, I don't know...actually knowing where you're going and what you'll be doing and that you'll be able to afford rentish and billish type things??

A lot has happened since I last posted. I got on the aforementioned plane for starters. I have now officially commenced the next leg of the journey which is: Finding The Means To Prevent Having To Crawl Back To Hometown With Tail Between Legs. (Also known in some parts looking for a job.)

To all the Melbourne folk who I know and adore who may be reading this - apologies for being somewhat less than social during this transition-time, but it's the way that it's got to be. I needs bag me an income. Until such time, I will probably be all but inaccessible.

Know that the time is productively spent however. As endearing as my shotgun approach to job seeking is, I've been conducting motivational, aptitude and personality tests on myself for the purposes of narrowing down options a bit. With some interesting, but mostly unsurprising 'career match' results. Although, my sister and I had a really good long laugh about the prospect of telling our parents that I was going throw away my university education and become a beautician because a book said that it was one of my career matches.

Once I got up off the floor and wiped the tears of laughter from my eyes, I put together a hierarchy of options, based on interest and likelihood. Basically, the plan, if it can indeed be called that, is to continue applying IT project positions, get a job nice and quickly in this area. After I get a place and get settled, I'm going to take a short course in one of the areas that actually interests me (omfg) and makes good use of my innate talents (omfgiah) and obtain a job in that area. There are a lot of variables, but I believe that it can be done. Alls I got to do for the moment is keep applying and approaching orgs.

Historical Sign

Part the joy of "deep cleaning" is that one gets to uncover all sorts of lost treasures Indianna Jones-style. I found one such gem this morning in the form of a sign that I made when I was in my early twenties. My sister had just come back from Japan for the second time. Having moved back home from uni dorms and happily adjusted to being an only child, having her around the house was a rude awakening to certain realities associated with living with other people, that is, having to deal with other people's quirks. My sister had a quirk that involved her busting in on me while I was having a bath. Without fail almost, no matter what time I would have my bath, she would disturb a pleasant soak I was having because she needed something from the bathroom, despite my asking her on more than one occasion not to. Often without knocking. It drove me nuts. Thus, having a penchant for the passive-aggressive, I made a very colourful sign for the bathroom door during my bathtime, as follows;

1. Are you a considerate person?
2. Do you place value on human dignity and comfort?
3. Do you have respect for the wishes of your fellow human being?

You posess all of these qualities, and more? Wonderful.
Then Let Althea have her bath in
PEACE (insert artfully done peace sign incorporating the 'E' and the 'A')

It gave me chuckle when I found it. If memory serves, my sister never actually saw it. My mother took it down discreetly the first time I put it up and when asked about it promised that she'd talk to the sestren. Nonetheless, it was a very good release. I put it aside (just in case). But I don't imagine that I'll be needing it in a 1BR apartment.

*does happy "I'm getting a 1BR apartment" dance*